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Reference values to NDCs resp. NDC calculators
Short introduction
Core question: distribution of a global CO2 budget
CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here).
Which concrete global budget we want to orientate by 2100, however, must ultimately be decided politically on the basis of the current state of scientific knowledge.
Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism (ambition mechanism) of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Here, two models including tools are presented that involve distributing a global budget and determining national paths::
 the Regensburg Model and
 the Extended Smooth Pathway Model.
Tools based on the Regensburg Model Scenario Types are also offered
 for determining global paths that are compatible with a given global budget
 for determining paths that are compatible with a given budget.
With these tools, we make a contribution to operationalizing the goals of the Paris Agreement.
In addition, resource sharing models are compared.
Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1  6 (here is a mathematical description)
With the help of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types, global or national emission
paths can be determined that
meet a
given budget. The scenario types differ in the
assumption about the
property of the
annual reductions. The emission paths are therefore indirectly determined essentially via the annual reductions. This approach is particularly useful when it comes to making
political decisions about emission
paths.
Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)
 Global paths: Global emission paths are determined that are compatible with a global CO2 budget to be specified. For this purpose, the RM tool provides the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1  6 (see above).
 National paths: National emission paths are derived from this global paths with the Regensburg Formula, which leads to the convergence of per capita emissions.
Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM; inspired by Raupach et al.)
 National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM tool offers the use of a weighted distribution key that includes the 'population' and the 'emissions' in a base year (here: 2019).
 National paths: The ESPM tool offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1  6 (see above) to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.
Download tools and papers
National reference vlaues that are compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018  2100
 Excel tools for calculating national reference vlaues that are compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018  2100

Regensburg Model (RM)

Extended Smooth
Pathway Model (ESPM) 
download tool 


version of the tool 
31.0 
36.0 
preview ot the tool in the browser 


instruction for the tool 


method 
national paths are derived from a global path using the Regensburg Formula 
national paths are derived that adhere to a given national budget 
allocation approach 
converging per capita emissions 
weighted distribution key for a global budget with "emissions" and "population" as factors to be weighted 
selectable parameter to map climate justice 
convergence level 
weighting population 
paths:
the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1  6) are used to derive paths that are compatible with a specified budget.
► see mathematical description of the RM Scenario Types: . 
scenario types RM 1  6 are used to determine global emission paths 
scenario types RM 1  6 are used to determine national emission paths 
paper 
Journal "Climate Policy" published online on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions 
working paper:
Application of the ESPM to the EU objectives:
Is the EU 2030 target compatible with the Paris Agreement? (in German) 
 Exemplary results according to the RM and the ESPM with different global budgets
Exemplary results according to the RM and the ESPM 
global CO2 budget 2018  2100 
420 Gt 
570 Gt 
680 Gt 



Regensburg Model 
Lists of national emission budgets and
reference values for all countries according to the RM 





Extended Smooth Pathway Model 
Lists of national emission budgets for all countries and
reference values for the largest emitters according to the ESPM 
weighting population 
50% 



15% 



Here you will find more results in the ESPM with different framework data. 



Notes on the relationship between ESPM and RM:
Depending on the chosen global path and the chosen convergence level, there is an implicit weighting of the population in the resulting national budgets in the RM. The use of this implicit weighting as an explicit weighting in the ESPM leads to very similar results as in the RM, as the overview of the results according to ESPM and RM shows for the largest emitters: 
Overview results ESPM and RM for the largest emitters and different global budgets:


Determine global paths that meet a given global budget
In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool.
 Download: Tool_global_paths.xlsm version: 14.0; preview of the tool in the browser here
 Instructions for the tool
 Contains the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1  6) to determine global emission paths that are compatible with a given global budget. These sceanrio types differ in the assumption about the property of the annual changes (see mathematical description: ).
 Contains in addition the illustrative IPCC SR1.5 paths P1  P4 (LED, S1, S2, S5).
Determine paths that meet a given budget
With this simple tool, with the help of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1  6), global or national emission paths can be derived that meet a specified budget 2020  2100. This tool is particularly suitable if a global or national budget is already known and the first interest is in compatible emission paths or if the focus is on getting to know the RM Scenario Types.
Results of the tools based on the framework data specified by you
There is the option of making the results of the tools available as PDFs based on the framework data you specified.
Here you can download a form for a request .
Comparison similar approaches (Resource Sharing Models)
Resource sharing models directly address the allocation of a remaining global budget. This article will therefore give an overview of the properties of resource sharing models that, in principle, use current emissions and population as a distribution key. The following models are compared: Regensburg Model (Regensburg Formula), Contraction & Convergence (C&C), Smooth Pathway Models (Smooth Pathway Formula from Raupach and Extended Smooth Pathway Model), Chakravarty et al. (cap per capita emissions), Höhne et al.
(common but differentiated convergence; CDC).
Remark on the tools
The Excel tools include macros. On request, the tools can be provided without macros and the macros as text or bas files for selfintegration. Please contact us: savetheclimate@online.ms (mail to).
Mathematical Papers
 Resource Sharing Models  A Mathematical Description
This paper shines the spotlight on the mathematical formulae of resource sharing models. It contributes to greater transparency and comparability through a uniform mathematical representation, by showing generalisations and mergers as well as similarities and differences between currently used models. It also contains mathematical proofs for specified properties of the models.
In Chapter 2 we consider models with a limited convergence period, at the end of which global emissions are allocated to countries according to population only (C&C, LIMITS, Regensburg Formula, CDC). The Smooth Pathway Models in Chapter 3 calculates national paths starting from allocated remaining national budgets. The Emission Probability Model in Chapter 4 determines country specific emission density functions and caps the emissions of individuals.
 Mathematical Description of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1  6)
The Regensburg Model Scenario Types are used to derive plausible emission paths that meet a certain budget.
More downloads of this website
 Own publications and discussion papers here
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