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Reference values to NDCs resp. NDC calculators

Short introduction

Core question: distribution of a global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming. Here are key statements from the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report on remaining CO2 budgets.

Which concrete global budget we want to orientate, however, must ultimately be decided politically on the basis of the current state of scientific knowledge.

Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism (ambition mechanism) of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Here, two models including tools are presented that involve distributing a global budget and determining national paths:

Tools based on the RM Scenario Types are also offered for the determination of emission paths that are compatible with a predefined budget.

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (here is a short description)

With the help of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types, global or national emission paths can be determined that meet a given budget. The scenario types differ in the assumption about the property of the annual reductions. The emission paths are therefore indirectly determined essentially via the annual reductions. This approach is particularly useful when it comes to making political decisions about emission paths.

Publication: Zenodo, Mathematical Description of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 – 6 Download

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)

  1. Global paths: Global emission paths are determined that are compatible with a global CO2 budget to be specified. For this purpose, the RM tool provides the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (see above).
  2. National paths: National emission paths are derived from this global paths with the Regensburg Formula, which leads to the convergence of per capita emissions (see mathematical description: Download).

Publication: Journal "Climate Policy", 2016, The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions Download

Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM; inspired by Raupach et al.; brief background Download)

  1. National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM tool offers the use of a weighted distribution key that includes the 'population' and the 'emissions' in a base year (here: 2019).
  2. National paths: The ESPM tool offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (see above) to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.

Publications:

Download tools

Calculation of national emission paths and targets for all countries in the world that are compatible with a specified global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

 

Regensburg Model (RM)

Extended Smooth
Pathway Model (ESPM)
download tool
Download
Download
version of the tool
40.0
56.0
preview ot the tool in the browser
instruction for the tool
Download
Download
published on Zenodo  
method national paths are derived from a global path using the Regensburg Formula national paths are derived that adhere to a given national budget
allocation approach converging per capita emissions weighted distribution key for a global budget with "emissions" and "population" as factors to be weighted
selectable parameter to map climate justice
convergence level weighting population
emission paths The Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1 - 6) are used to derive paths that are compatible with a specified budget.
► see mathematical description of the RM Scenario Types: Download.
scenario types RM 1 - 6 are used to determine global emission paths scenario types RM 1 - 6 are used to determine national emission paths
data base
EDGAR - is provided by the EU Commission: CO2 fossil and industrial processes.
For the handling of LUC and ISA emissions in the tools, see this paper: Download
exemplary results
global CO2 budget
2018 - 2100
all countries
Here you will find results in the ESPM with different framework data:
  • weighting population:
    100, 85, 70, 50, 30, 15 or 0%
  • different global budgets
  • Szenario Types: RM 3 - 6
420 Gt
Download
570 Gt
Download
680 Gt
Download
further here specified parameters:
minimum global emission in Gt
0
convergence level in t/capita
0.25
relationship between
ESPM and RM
Depending on the chosen global path and the chosen convergence level, there is an implicit weighting of the population in the resulting national budgets across all countries in the RM (see proof in the mathematical description). The use of this implicit weighting as an explicit weighting in the ESPM leads to very similar results as in the RM. The results in the RM can therefore also be generated in the ESPM if the weighting of the population is specified accordingly. The implicit weighting can be calculated in the RM tool and is given above in the examplary results in the RM for all countries in the world.
last publication Journal "Climate Policy" published online 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions Download

Calculation of Paris-compatible emission targets for the six largest emitters Download - published on Zenodo

web app  

espm.climate-calculator.info

Determination of emission paths that adhere to a given buget using the Regensburg Model Scenario Types

 
ESPM approach: Set budget and determine emission paths
 
determine global paths
Tool_global_paths
determine global or national paths
Tool_Paths_RM_ST
donwload tool
Download
Download
version of the tool
22.0
36.0
preview ot the tool in the browser
instruction for the tool
Download
Download
published on Zenodo
background

In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool.

With this simple tool, global or national emission paths can be derived that meet a specified budget.

This tool is particularly suitable if

  • a global or national budget is already known and the first interest is in compatible emission paths,
  • the focus is on getting to know the RM Scenario Types Download or
  • a database other than EDGAR is to be used.
additional feature Contains the illustrative IPCC SR1.5 paths P1 - P4 (LED, S1, S2, S5). A temporary corona effect can be taken into account.
data base Global Carbon Project; IPCC SR1.5

Data for the EU, Germany and globally from various sources are offered.

For the EU, it is offered to calculate a budget with our ESPM on the basis of data from the European Environment Agency (EEA).

exemplary results   Here you will find some results for the EU and Germany with different framework data. Especially on the basis of the framework data from the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU).
method The tools uses the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1 - 6) to determine emission paths that are compatible with a given budget. These sceanrio types differ in the assumption about the property of the annual changes (see mathematical description: Download).
last publication   Berechnung Paris-kompatibler Emissionspfade mit dem ESPM am Beispiel der EU Download; published on Zenodo
web apps   EU:eu.climate-calculator.info
universally applicable app:espm.climate-calculator.info

Calculation of the implicit weighting of the population

With this tool Download (preview), you can determine the implicit weighting of the population (IWP) based on a national CO2 budget that you specify, if a global CO2 budget that you also specify were to be distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key. The weighted distribution key takes into account the share of the global population and the share of global emissions of the selected country in 2019. The national budget can be derived from an NDC, for example. The IWP thus offers an additional helpful assessment criterion for NDCs. The tool contains a database on the emissions and population figures of all countries in the world in 2019.

Easy access to results of the models based on framework data specified by you

Comparison similar approaches (Resource Sharing Models)

Resource sharing models directly address the allocation of a remaining global budget. This article will therefore give an overview of the properties of resource sharing models that, in principle, use current emissions and population as a distribution key. The following models are compared: Regensburg Model (Regensburg Formula), Contraction & Convergence (C&C), Smooth Pathway Models (Smooth Pathway Formula from Raupach and Extended Smooth Pathway Model), Chakravarty et al. (cap per capita emissions), Höhne et al. (common but differentiated convergence; CDC).

Remark on the tools

The Excel tools include macros. On request, the tools can be provided without macros and the macros as text or bas files for self-integration. Please contact us: save-the-climate@online.ms (mail to). You can also remove the macros by saving the downloaded xlsm file as an xlsx file. The main function of the macros is to determine the free parameters in the scenario types so that the specified budget is adhered to. You then have to do this individually for each scenario type in the sheet "goal seek" using the target value search (goal seek) integrated in Excel.

Mathematical papers

Publications overview here