Climate policy - effective & fair
Overview of web apps, Excel tools and papers
on the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)
Link to this page: www.climate-calculator.info
Calculation of Paris-compatible emission paths and targets with the ESPM:
The ESPM consists of two calculation steps:
(here is a brief background paper on the ESPM)
Step 1: Determination of a national budget
Step 2: Derivation of plausible emission paths that adhere to this budget
What is calculated? |
emission paths only |
budgets and emission paths for the EU |
national CO2 budgets and |
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web apps |
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web app |
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applicable to |
any geographical or other unit |
EU |
with data for all countries in the world |
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which emissions |
freely specifiable |
all CO2 emissions |
CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels (database EDGAR) |
total CO2 emissions (database GCP) |
step 1: budget |
The budget must be defined by the user; the tools in the right-hand columns may provide support |
To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget, |
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step 2: paths |
To calculate the emission paths, the tools use the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (here is a brief description). These scenario types are designed to cover the full range of plausible emission paths. Which scenario type is appropriate in a given case must be assessed scientifically from an overall climate policy perspective. |
The web apps also show emission targets based on linear emission paths. |
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Excel tools |
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corresponding |
In general, a tool for determining emission paths that comply with a predefined budget.
Additional feature compared with the emission-paths web app: the selectable start-year rate of change may also be positive. |
Calculation of national CO2 budgets based on different databases (EDGAR, GCP, EEA).
Additional features e.g.:
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step 1: budget |
The user must generally define the budget themselves (see tools in the right-hand column for possible support). The Excel tool for calculating national CO2 budgets (see right-hand column) can be linked to this Excel tool so that the emissions data of all countries in the world and the national budgets calculated there are also available in this tool. The Excel tool also contains emissions data for the EU and Germany, as well as global emissions data. For the EU and Germany, national CO2 budgets can also be determined using the weighting model. |
To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget, a weighting model is offered that takes into account the country's share of the world population and of global emissions. |
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step 2: paths |
To calculate the emission paths, the tool uses the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (here is a brief description). |
The tool also indicates the year of emissions neutrality under a linear emissions path. |
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ESPM-Tool |
Integrated tool for determining national CO2 budgets for all countries in the world
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step 1: budget |
The tool uses the weighting model (see above) and the EDGAR database. |
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step 2: paths |
The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above). |
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papers |
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last published papers Paris-compatible emission paths and targets |
EU (in German) |
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six major emitters |
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realistic global framework data |
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Further web apps
web app
implicit national emission budgets and implicit weightings population (IWP) |
web app
linear global emission paths |
web app Regensburg Model (converging per capita emissions) |
