Update of remaining global budgets in Gt CO2
Source: FORSTER et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/3889/2026/ data status: Jun 26
See also: The Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative (IGCC) https://www.igcc.earth/
Sum actual emissions 2020 - 2025 248   Gt Source: GCP
Remaining budgets from beginning 2026 (IGCC) Converted to from 2020
Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets GtCO2 GCP IGCC source values GCP IGCC incl. CeCS EDGAR
IGCC IPCC AR6 fossil LUC total fossil LULUCF total CeCS total fossil LULUCF total
Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% 90% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% 90% 83% 2020 34.4 4.5 38.9 35.2 4.5 39.7 -0.8 38.9 36.2 -0.11 36.1
[°C] [GtCO2 from 2026 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] 2021 36.0 4.7 40.7 36.9 4.7 41.5 -0.8 40.7 38.2 -0.35 37.9
1.5 130 80 30 10 1.5 378 328 278 258 300 2022 36.7 4.8 41.5 37.5 4.8 42.3 -0.8 41.5 38.5 -0.24 38.3
1.6 320 240 170 130 1.6 568 488 418 378 400 2023 37.3 4.7 42.0 38.1 4.7 42.8 -0.8 42.0 39.1 1.30 40.4
1.7 500 390 300 250 1.7 748 638 548 498 550 2024 37.8 4.6 42.4 38.6 4.6 43.2 -0.8 42.4 39.6 -0.05 39.6
1.8 680 550 430 370 1.8 928 798 678 618 650 subtotal 182.2 23.3 205.5 186.2 23.3 209.5 -4.1 205.5 191.7 0.5 192.3
1.9 860 700 560 480 1.9 1,108 948 808 728 800 2025 38.1 4.1 42.2        
2.0 1,050 860 690 600 2.0 1,298 1,108 938 848 900 total     247.7                
Budgets IPCC AR6 Difference to IGCC budgets
Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets Warming Difference Warming Difference
Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83%
[°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on]
1.5 500 400 300 1.5 -122 -72 -22 1.5 -24% -18% -7%
1.6 650 550 400 1.6 -82 -62 18 1.6 -13% -11% 4%
1.7 850 700 550 1.7 -102 -62 -2 1.7 -12% -9% 0%
1.8 1,000 850 650 1.8 -72 -52 28 1.8 -7% -6% 4%
1.9 1,200 1,000 800 1.9 -92 -52 8 1.9 -8% -5% 1%
2.0 1,350 1,150 900 2.0 -52 -42 38 2.0 -4% -4% 4%