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Update of remaining global budgets in Gt CO2 |
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Source: |
FORSTER et al.: Indicators of
Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of
the climate system and human influence |
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https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/ |
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See also: |
The Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative
(IGCC) |
https://www.igcc.earth/ |
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Sum
actual emissions 2020 - 2024 |
206 |
Gt |
Source: IGCC |
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Remaining
budgets from beginning 2025 (IGCC) |
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Converted to
from 2020 |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
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GtCO2 |
GCP |
IGCC |
EDGAR |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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fossil |
LUC |
total |
fossil |
LULUCF |
total |
fossil |
LULUCF |
total |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2025 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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2020 |
34.4 |
4.5 |
38.9 |
36.0 |
4.4 |
40.4 |
36.2 |
-0.11 |
36.1 |
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1.5 |
130 |
80 |
30 |
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1.5 |
336 |
286 |
236 |
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2021 |
36.0 |
4.7 |
40.7 |
36.5 |
4.3 |
40.8 |
38.2 |
-0.35 |
37.9 |
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1.6 |
310 |
240 |
160 |
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1.6 |
516 |
446 |
366 |
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2022 |
36.7 |
4.8 |
41.5 |
37.1 |
4.1 |
41.2 |
38.5 |
-0.24 |
38.3 |
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1.7 |
490 |
390 |
290 |
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1.7 |
696 |
596 |
496 |
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2023 |
37.3 |
4.7 |
42.0 |
37.8 |
3.6 |
41.4 |
39.1 |
1.30 |
40.4 |
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1.8 |
680 |
550 |
430 |
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1.8 |
886 |
756 |
636 |
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2024 |
37.8 |
4.6 |
42.4 |
38.2 |
4.2 |
42.4 |
39.6 |
-0.05 |
39.6 |
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1.9 |
860 |
710 |
560 |
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1.9 |
1,066 |
916 |
766 |
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total |
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205.5 |
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206.2 |
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192.3 |
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2.0 |
1,050 |
870 |
690 |
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2.0 |
1,256 |
1,076 |
896 |
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2025 |
38.1 |
4.1 |
42.2 |
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Budgets IPCC
AR6 |
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Difference
to IGCC budgets |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
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Warming |
Difference |
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Warming |
Difference |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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1.5 |
500 |
400 |
300 |
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1.5 |
-164 |
-114 |
-64 |
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1.5 |
-33% |
-28% |
-21% |
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1.6 |
650 |
550 |
400 |
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1.6 |
-134 |
-104 |
-34 |
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1.6 |
-21% |
-19% |
-8% |
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1.7 |
850 |
700 |
550 |
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1.7 |
-154 |
-104 |
-54 |
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1.7 |
-18% |
-15% |
-10% |
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1.8 |
1,000 |
850 |
650 |
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1.8 |
-114 |
-94 |
-14 |
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1.8 |
-11% |
-11% |
-2% |
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1.9 |
1,200 |
1,000 |
800 |
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1.9 |
-134 |
-84 |
-34 |
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1.9 |
-11% |
-8% |
-4% |
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2.0 |
1,350 |
1,150 |
900 |
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2.0 |
-94 |
-74 |
-4 |
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2.0 |
-7% |
-6% |
0% |
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