Determination
of the free parameters for the global scenarios 2020 - 2100 |
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target is met |
target is not met[1] |
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input values |
determination
via "goal seek" |
target value of "goal seek" |
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RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
average global change rates last three years |
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characteristics of the
scenario |
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RRt const |
RRt exp |
RRt lin |
RRt quadr |
RRt rad |
RA const |
Raupach |
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A
corona effect should not be considered here. |
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only a negative RR_20 possible |
a positive RR_20 is also
possible
(= increasing emissions after 2019) |
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info |
info |
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change
rate 2020 (RR20)[2] |
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-8.4% |
-1.00% |
-1.00% |
-1.00% |
-1.00% |
-3.62% |
-0.7% |
0.5% |
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Initial
values for free parameter (cells shaded in grey) if Goal Seek does not
converge: |
-10% |
1% |
-1% |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
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RRt constant |
a |
a |
a |
a |
RA |
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Free
parameters are determined by Goal Seek in such a way as that the budget is
adhered to. |
-8.43% |
19.53% |
-0.76403% |
-8.2447E+303 |
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-3.77787E+16 |
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-0.00064334 |
-0.02694181 |
-1.53[3] |
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scenario ∑ 2020 - 2100 |
Gt |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
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budget ∑
2020 - 2100[4] |
Gt |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
336 |
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emissions
2100 scenario; E2100 |
Gt |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
0.0 |
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minimum emissions; Emin[5] |
Gt |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
-4.35 |
- |
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values from the scenarios |
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RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
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year Emin is achieved |
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2087 |
2047 |
2060 |
2051 |
2070 |
2050 |
- |
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maximum RRt[6] |
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-8.4% |
-51% |
-21% |
-35% |
-15% |
-61% |
-19% |
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year maximum RRt[7] |
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2044 |
2042 |
2046 |
2043 |
2049 |
2046 |
- |
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overshoot |
Gt |
112 |
242 |
200 |
230 |
167 |
228 |
- |
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reduction
2030 vs. 2010 |
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-58% |
-19% |
-36% |
-23% |
-45% |
-33% |
-71% |
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At
which level of global emissions (threshold value; TV) shall the annual percentage reduction be change into a
constant annual reduction in scenarios 2 - 5? in Gt[8] |
1.8 |
4.2% |
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Opportunity for its own TV in scenario 1 to get there earlier to global negative emissions: in Gt |
2.2 |
5.2% |
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