Figures: Weighting population vs. targets 2030/2019 and emission paths of the six largest emitters
weighting population China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria start macro: weighting poplation vs. targets 30/19
0% -28% -31% -32% -28% -30% -32% -30%
5% -29% -32% -32% -25% -31% -33% -23%
10% -30% -33% -32% -23% -32% -33% -18%
15% -31% -35% -33% -21% -33% -34% -15%
20% -32% -36% -33% -20% -35% -35% -13%
25% -33% -37% -34% -18% -36% -36% -11%
30% -34% -39% -34% -17% -38% -37% -10%
35% -35% -41% -35% -16% -40% -38% -9%
40% -36% -43% -35% -15% -42% -39% -7%
45% -37% -45% -36% -14% -44% -40% -6%
50% -39% -47% -36% -13% -46% -41% -5%
55% -40% -50% -37% -12% -49% -42% -4%
60% -42% -53% -38% -11% -51% -44% -2%
65% -43% -57% -38% -10% -55% -45% -1%
70% -45% -61% -39% -10% -58% -47% 0% Parameter ESPM:
► linear emission paths (RM-6)
► global budget: 550 Gt
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
75% -47% -65% -40% -9% -63% -48% 2%
80% -49% -71% -40% -9% -67% -50% 3% The last data used when executing the macro:
85% -51% -77% -41% -8% -73% -52% 4% B 550  
90% -53% -85% -42% -8% -80% -54% 5% LUC 0  
95% -56% -95% -42% -7% -87% -57% 7% NNE   -2.0%  
100% -59% -102% -43% -7% -97% -59% 8%
input values for all graphics in this sheet
start macro: paths RM-6 big six
The last data used when executing the macro:
global budget 550   LUC 0 B 550 LUC 0
weig. pop. 15%   NNE -2.0% WP 15% NNE -2.0%
  China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria emissions in Gt China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2018 11,554 5,118 3,048 2,574 1,807 1,167 118   11.6 5.1 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 chnage rates China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,819 4,967 2,904 2,541 1,877 1,128 123   11.8 5.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2019 2.3% -2.9% -4.7% -1.3% 3.9% -3.3% 4.5%
2020 12,037 4,467 2,633 2,321 1,789 1,063 116 2020 12.0 4.5 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 2020 1.8% -10.1% -9.3% -8.7% -4.7% -5.8% -5.9%
2021 12,718 4,769 2,824 2,528 1,933 1,076 123   12.7 4.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2021 5.7% 6.8% 7.2% 8.9% 8.0% 1.2% 6.1%
2022 12,667 4,854 2,805 2,693 1,909 1,083 123   12.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 2022 -0.4% 1.8% -0.7% 6.5% -1.2% 0.6% -0.4%
2023 12,108 4,653 2,698 2,607 1,827 1,040 121   12.1 4.7 2.7 2.6 1.8 1.0 0.1   -4.4% -4.1% -3.8% -3.2% -4.3% -3.9% -1.8%
2024 11,549 4,453 2,591 2,520 1,745 998 118   11.5 4.5 2.6 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.1   -4.6% -4.3% -4.0% -3.3% -4.5% -4.1% -1.9%
2025 10,989 4,252 2,484 2,433 1,662 955 116   11.0 4.3 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.1   -4.8% -4.5% -4.1% -3.4% -4.7% -4.3% -1.9%
2026 10,430 4,051 2,377 2,347 1,580 913 114   10.4 4.1 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.1   -5.1% -4.7% -4.3% -3.6% -4.9% -4.4% -1.9%
2027 9,870 3,851 2,270 2,260 1,498 871 112   9.9 3.9 2.3 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.1   -5.4% -5.0% -4.5% -3.7% -5.2% -4.6% -2.0%
2028 9,311 3,650 2,163 2,174 1,416 828 109   9.3 3.7 2.2 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.1   -5.7% -5.2% -4.7% -3.8% -5.5% -4.9% -2.0%
2029 8,752 3,450 2,056 2,087 1,333 786 107   8.8 3.4 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.1   -6.0% -5.5% -4.9% -4.0% -5.8% -5.1% -2.0%
2030 8,192 3,249 1,949 2,001 1,251 743 105 2030 8.2 3.2 1.9 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 2030 -6.4% -5.8% -5.2% -4.1% -6.2% -5.4% -2.1%
2031 7,633 3,049 1,842 1,914 1,169 701 103   7.6 3.0 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.1   -6.8% -6.2% -5.5% -4.3% -6.6% -5.7% -2.1%
2032 7,073 2,848 1,735 1,828 1,087 659 100   7.1 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.1   -7.3% -6.6% -5.8% -4.5% -7.0% -6.1% -2.2%
2033 6,514 2,647 1,629 1,741 1,005 616 98   6.5 2.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.1   -7.9% -7.0% -6.2% -4.7% -7.6% -6.4% -2.2% Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-6 abs
► global budget: 550 Gt
► weighting population: 15%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
2034 5,955 2,447 1,522 1,655 922 574 96   6.0 2.4 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.1   -8.6% -7.6% -6.6% -5.0% -8.2% -6.9% -2.3%
2035 5,395 2,246 1,415 1,568 840 531 94   5.4 2.2 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1   -9.4% -8.2% -7.0% -5.2% -8.9% -7.4% -2.3%
2036 4,836 2,046 1,308 1,482 758 489 91   4.8 2.0 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1   -10.4% -8.9% -7.6% -5.5% -9.8% -8.0% -2.4%
2037 4,276 1,845 1,201 1,395 676 446 89   4.3 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1   -11.6% -9.8% -8.2% -5.8% -10.8% -8.7% -2.4%
2038 3,717 1,644 1,094 1,309 593 404 87   3.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1   -13.1% -10.9% -8.9% -6.2% -12.2% -9.5% -2.5%
2039 3,158 1,444 987 1,222 511 362 85   3.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1   -15.0% -12.2% -9.8% -6.6% -13.9% -10.5% -2.6%
2040 2,598 1,243 880 1,136 429 319 83 2040 2.6 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 2040 -17.7% -13.9% -10.8% -7.1% -16.1% -11.7% -2.6%
2041 2,039 1,043 773 1,049 347 277 80   2.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1   -21.5% -16.1% -12.2% -7.6% -19.2% -13.3% -2.7%
2042 1,479 842 666 963 265 234 78   1.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1   -27.4% -19.2% -13.8% -8.2% -23.7% -15.3% -2.8%
2043 920 641 559 876 182 192 76   0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1   -37.8% -23.8% -16.1% -9.0% -31.1% -18.1% -2.9%
2044 361 441 452 790 100 150 74   0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1   -60.8% -31.3% -19.1% -9.9% -45.1% -22.1% -2.9%
2045 -199 240 345 703 18 107 71   -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -45.5% -23.6% -11.0% -82.2% -28.4% -3.0%
2046 -236 40 238 616 -38 65 69   -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -83.5% -31.0% -12.3% #NV -39.6% -3.1%
2047 -236 -99 131 530 -38 22 67   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1   #NV #NV -44.9% -14.0% #NV -65.5% -3.2%
2048 -236 -99 24 443 -38 -20 65   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1   #NV #NV -81.4% -16.3% #NV #NV -3.3%
2049 -236 -99 -58 357 -38 -23 62   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1   #NV #NV #NV -19.5% #NV #NV -3.5%
2050 -236 -99 -58 270 -38 -23 60 2050 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 2050 #NV #NV #NV -24.2% #NV #NV -3.6%
sum 20 - 50 173.2 70.0 43.5 47.8 26.7 16.4 2.9
Inputs see above
start macro: paths RM-3 big six
B 550 LUC 0 B 550 LUC 0 The last data used when executing the macro
WP 15% NNE -2.0% WP 15% NNE -2.0%
  China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria emissions in Gt China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2018 11,554 5,118 3,048 2,574 1,807 1,167 118   11.6 5.1 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 change rates China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,819 4,967 2,904 2,541 1,877 1,128 123   11.8 5.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2019 2.3% -2.9% -4.7% -1.3% 3.9% -3.3% 4.5%
2020 12,037 4,467 2,633 2,321 1,789 1,063 116 2020 12.0 4.5 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 2020 1.8% -10.1% -9.3% -8.7% -4.7% -5.8% -5.9%
2021 12,718 4,769 2,824 2,528 1,933 1,076 123   12.7 4.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2021 5.7% 6.8% 7.2% 8.9% 8.0% 1.2% 6.1%
2022 12,667 4,854 2,805 2,693 1,909 1,083 123   12.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 2022 -0.4% 1.8% -0.7% 6.5% -1.2% 0.6% -0.4%
2023 12,544 4,646 2,655 2,629 1,912 1,035 127   12.5 4.6 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.1   -1.0% -4.3% -5.4% -2.4% 0.2% -4.4% 3.1%
2024 12,285 4,427 2,507 2,557 1,892 986 130   12.3 4.4 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.1   -2.1% -4.7% -5.6% -2.7% -1.1% -4.8% 2.6%
2025 11,896 4,199 2,362 2,477 1,849 935 133   11.9 4.2 2.4 2.5 1.8 0.9 0.1   -3.2% -5.2% -5.8% -3.1% -2.3% -5.1% 2.2%
2026 11,391 3,964 2,220 2,390 1,783 884 135   11.4 4.0 2.2 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.1   -4.3% -5.6% -6.0% -3.5% -3.5% -5.5% 1.7%
2027 10,782 3,724 2,082 2,298 1,698 833 137   10.8 3.7 2.1 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.1   -5.3% -6.0% -6.2% -3.9% -4.8% -5.8% 1.2%
2028 10,088 3,482 1,949 2,200 1,596 782 138   10.1 3.5 1.9 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.1   -6.4% -6.5% -6.4% -4.2% -6.0% -6.2% 0.7%
2029 9,329 3,241 1,819 2,099 1,480 731 138   9.3 3.2 1.8 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.1   -7.5% -6.9% -6.6% -4.6% -7.2% -6.5% 0.3%
2030 8,525 3,002 1,695 1,994 1,355 680 138 2030 8.5 3.0 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 2030 -8.6% -7.4% -6.9% -5.0% -8.5% -6.9% -0.2%
2031 7,697 2,767 1,575 1,887 1,223 631 137   7.7 2.8 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.1   -9.7% -7.8% -7.1% -5.4% -9.7% -7.2% -0.7%
2032 6,865 2,539 1,460 1,779 1,089 583 135   6.9 2.5 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.1   -10.8% -8.3% -7.3% -5.7% -11.0% -7.6% -1.2%
2033 6,049 2,318 1,351 1,670 956 537 133   6.0 2.3 1.4 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.1   -11.9% -8.7% -7.5% -6.1% -12.2% -7.9% -1.6% Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-3 lin
► global budget: 550 Gt
► weighting population: 15%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
2034 5,263 2,106 1,247 1,562 828 492 130   5.3 2.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1   -13.0% -9.1% -7.7% -6.5% -13.4% -8.3% -2.1%
2035 4,522 1,904 1,148 1,455 706 450 127   4.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1   -14.1% -9.6% -7.9% -6.9% -14.7% -8.7% -2.6%
2036 3,836 1,713 1,055 1,349 594 409 123   3.8 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1   -15.2% -10.0% -8.1% -7.2% -15.9% -9.0% -3.1%
2037 3,212 1,533 967 1,247 492 371 118   3.2 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.1   -16.3% -10.5% -8.3% -7.6% -17.1% -9.4% -3.6%
2038 2,655 1,366 884 1,147 401 335 114   2.7 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1   -17.4% -10.9% -8.6% -8.0% -18.4% -9.7% -4.0%
2039 2,165 1,211 806 1,051 323 301 109   2.2 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.1   -18.4% -11.4% -8.8% -8.4% -19.6% -10.1% -4.5%
2040 1,742 1,068 734 960 255 270 103 2040 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 2040 -19.5% -11.8% -9.0% -8.7% -20.9% -10.4% -5.0%
2041 1,382 937 666 872 199 241 97   1.4 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1   -20.6% -12.2% -9.2% -9.1% -22.1% -10.8% -5.5%
2042 1,082 818 603 789 153 214 92   1.1 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1   -21.7% -12.7% -9.4% -9.5% -23.3% -11.1% -5.9%
2043 835 711 545 712 115 189 86   0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.1   -22.8% -13.1% -9.6% -9.9% -24.6% -11.5% -6.4%
2044 636 614 492 639 85 167 80   0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1   -23.9% -13.6% -9.8% -10.2% -25.8% -11.8% -6.9%
2045 477 528 442 571 62 146 74   0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1   -25.0% -14.0% -10.1% -10.6% -27.0% -12.2% -7.4%
2046 352 452 397 509 39 128 68   0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1   -26.1% -14.5% -10.3% -11.0% #NV -12.6% -7.8%
2047 228 384 355 451 16 112 63   0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -14.9% -10.5% -11.3% #NV -12.9% -8.3%
2048 104 325 317 398 -7 97 57   0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -15.4% -10.7% -11.7% #NV -13.3% -8.8%
2049 -21 274 283 350 -30 84 52   0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -15.8% -10.9% -12.1% #NV -13.6% -9.3%
2050 -145 229 251 306 -38 72 47 2050 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 2050 #NV -16.2% -11.1% -12.5% #NV -14.0% -9.8%
2051 -236 191 223 267 -38 62 42   -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0
2052 -236 158 197 232 -38 53 37   -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
2053 -236 126 174 200 -38 45 33   -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
2054 -236 93 153 172 -38 38 29   -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
2055 -236 60 134 148 -38 31 26   -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056 -236 27 118 126 -38 24 23   -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2057 -236 -5 103 107 -38 17 20   -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2058 -236 -38 90 90 -38 10 17   -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2059 -236 -71 76 76 -38 3 15   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2060 -236 -99 63 62 -38 -3 12 2060 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061 -236 -99 50 47 -38 -10 11   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2062 -236 -99 37 33 -38 -17 9   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2063 -236 -99 24 19 -38 -23 8   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2064 -236 -99 10 5 -38 -23 6   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2065 -236 -99 -3 -10 -38 -23 5   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066 -236 -99 -16 -24 -38 -23 4   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2067 -236 -99 -29 -38 -38 -23 3   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2068 -236 -99 -42 -51 -38 -23 2   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2069 -236 -99 -56 -51 -38 -23 2   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2070 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 1 2070 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 0   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2072 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -1   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2073 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -2   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2074 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2075 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2077 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2078 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2079 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2080 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3 2080 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2082 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2083 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2084 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2085 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2086 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2087 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2088 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2089 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2090 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3 2090 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2091 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2092 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2093 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2094 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2095 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2096 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2097 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2098 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2099 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2100 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   2100 -0.236 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.038 -0.023 -0.003
RR_20 2.301% -2.943% -4.714% ###### 3.887% -3.334% 4.550% sum 20 - 100 161.4 65.0 40.6 45.7 24.8 15.3 3.6
RR_19 2.301% -2.943% -4.714% ###### 3.887% -3.334% 4.550%
budget 161,377 65,042 40,632 45,723 24,782 15,308 3,613 NNE -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%
Inputs see above
start macro: paths RM-4 big six
B 550 LUC 0 B 550 LUC 0 The last data used when executing the macro
WP 15% NNE -2.0% WP 15% NNE -2.0%
  China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria emissions in Gt China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2018 11,554 5,118 3,048 2,574 1,807 1,167 118   11.6 5.1 3.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 0.1 change rates China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,819 4,967 2,904 2,541 1,877 1,128 123   11.8 5.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2019 2.3% -2.9% -4.7% -1.3% 3.9% -3.3% 4.5%
2020 12,037 4,467 2,633 2,321 1,789 1,063 116 2020 12.0 4.5 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.1 0.1 2020 1.8% -10.1% -9.3% -8.7% -4.7% -5.8% -5.9%
2021 12,718 4,769 2,824 2,528 1,933 1,076 123   12.7 4.8 2.8 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.1 2021 5.7% 6.8% 7.2% 8.9% 8.0% 1.2% 6.1%
2022 12,667 4,854 2,805 2,693 1,909 1,083 123   12.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 2022 -0.4% 1.8% -0.7% 6.5% -1.2% 0.6% -0.4%
2023 12,836 4,696 2,669 2,653 1,962 1,044 128   12.8 4.7 2.7 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.1   1.3% -3.2% -4.8% -1.5% 2.8% -3.6% 4.3%
2024 12,910 4,533 2,537 2,610 1,999 1,005 133   12.9 4.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.1   0.6% -3.5% -4.9% -1.6% 1.9% -3.7% 4.1%
2025 12,860 4,361 2,409 2,561 2,014 965 138   12.9 4.4 2.4 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.1   -0.4% -3.8% -5.1% -1.9% 0.8% -4.0% 3.8%
2026 12,657 4,180 2,284 2,506 2,002 924 143   12.7 4.2 2.3 2.5 2.0 0.9 0.1   -1.6% -4.2% -5.2% -2.1% -0.6% -4.2% 3.5%
2027 12,280 3,988 2,161 2,444 1,957 882 148   12.3 4.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.1   -3.0% -4.6% -5.4% -2.5% -2.2% -4.6% 3.1%
2028 11,716 3,784 2,041 2,375 1,876 838 152   11.7 3.8 2.0 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.2   -4.6% -5.1% -5.6% -2.8% -4.1% -5.0% 2.7%
2029 10,964 3,570 1,923 2,297 1,759 793 155   11.0 3.6 1.9 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.2   -6.4% -5.7% -5.8% -3.3% -6.2% -5.4% 2.2%
2030 10,035 3,344 1,807 2,211 1,608 747 158 2030 10.0 3.3 1.8 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 2030 -8.5% -6.3% -6.0% -3.7% -8.6% -5.9% 1.7%
2031 8,958 3,109 1,693 2,117 1,427 699 159   9.0 3.1 1.7 2.1 1.4 0.7 0.2   -10.7% -7.0% -6.3% -4.3% -11.2% -6.4% 1.1%
2032 7,775 2,867 1,581 2,015 1,226 650 160   7.8 2.9 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.2   -13.2% -7.8% -6.6% -4.8% -14.1% -7.0% 0.4%
2033 6,538 2,619 1,471 1,906 1,014 601 160   6.5 2.6 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2   -15.9% -8.6% -6.9% -5.4% -17.2% -7.6% -0.3% Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-4 quadr
► global budget: 550 Gt
► weighting population: 15%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
2034 5,309 2,369 1,363 1,789 805 551 158   5.3 2.4 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.2   -18.8% -9.6% -7.3% -6.1% -20.6% -8.3% -1.1%
2035 4,144 2,120 1,259 1,667 610 502 155   4.1 2.1 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.2   -21.9% -10.5% -7.7% -6.8% -24.2% -9.0% -1.9%
2036 3,097 1,874 1,157 1,540 439 453 151   3.1 1.9 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.2   -25.3% -11.6% -8.1% -7.6% -28.1% -9.8% -2.8%
2037 2,204 1,637 1,058 1,411 297 405 145   2.2 1.6 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.1   -28.8% -12.7% -8.5% -8.4% -32.2% -10.6% -3.7%
2038 1,486 1,410 963 1,280 188 358 138   1.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.1   -32.6% -13.9% -9.0% -9.3% -36.6% -11.5% -4.7%
2039 942 1,197 872 1,149 111 314 130   0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.1   -36.6% -15.1% -9.5% -10.2% -41.2% -12.4% -5.8%
2040 558 1,000 785 1,021 60 272 121 2040 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2040 -40.8% -16.4% -10.0% -11.2% -46.1% -13.4% -6.9%
2041 306 822 702 896 9 232 111   0.3 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.1   -45.2% -17.8% -10.5% -12.2% #NV -14.4% -8.1%
2042 54 664 625 777 -38 196 101   0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.1   #NV -19.3% -11.1% -13.3% #NV -15.5% -9.3%
2043 -199 526 552 666 -38 164 90   -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.1   #NV -20.8% -11.7% -14.4% #NV -16.6% -10.6%
2044 -236 408 484 562 -38 135 80   -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -22.4% -12.3% -15.5% #NV -17.8% -11.9%
2045 -236 310 421 468 -38 109 69   -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -24.0% -12.9% -16.7% #NV -19.1% -13.3%
2046 -236 230 364 384 -38 87 59   -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1   #NV -25.7% -13.6% -18.0% #NV -20.3% -14.8%
2047 -236 167 312 310 -38 68 49   -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0   #NV -27.5% -14.3% -19.3% #NV -21.7% -16.3%
2048 -236 104 265 246 -38 52 40   -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0   #NV #NV -15.0% -20.7% #NV -23.0% -17.9%
2049 -236 40 223 191 -38 39 32   -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0   #NV #NV -15.8% -22.1% #NV -24.5% -19.5%
2050 -236 -23 186 146 -38 29 26 2050 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2050 #NV #NV -16.6% -23.6% #NV -26.0% -21.2%
2051 -236 -87 154 110 -38 19 20   -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2052 -236 -99 126 80 -38 9 15   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2053 -236 -99 102 51 -38 -2 11   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2054 -236 -99 82 22 -38 -12 8   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2055 -236 -99 61 -7 -38 -22 5   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2056 -236 -99 41 -36 -38 -23 4   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2057 -236 -99 21 -51 -38 -23 2   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2058 -236 -99 0 -51 -38 -23 0   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2059 -236 -99 -20 -51 -38 -23 -2   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2060 -236 -99 -40 -51 -38 -23 -3 2060 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2062 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2063 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2064 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2065 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2067 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2068 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2069 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2070 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3 2070 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2072 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2073 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2074 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2075 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2077 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2078 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2079 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2080 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3 2080 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2082 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2083 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2084 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2085 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2086 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2087 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2088 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2089 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2090 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3 2090 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2091 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2092 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2093 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2094 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2095 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2096 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2097 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2098 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2099 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2100 -236 -99 -58 -51 -38 -23 -3   2100 -0.236 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.038 -0.023 -0.003
RR_20 2.30% -2.94% -4.72% -1.25% 3.89% -3.34% 4.55% sum 20 - 100 161.4 65.0 40.6 45.7 24.8 15.3 3.6
RR_19 2.30% -2.94% -4.71% -1.25% 3.89% -3.33% 4.55%
NNE -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%
budget 161,377 65,042 40,632 45,723 24,782 15,308 3,613