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Reference values to the NDCs:
Regensburg Model and Extended Smooth Pathway Model
Short introduction
Distribution of a global CO2 budget
CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, certain remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here).
In our opinion, for a better operationalization, it makes sense to consider a global CO2 budget by the end of this century. However, this implies that, if global negative emissions are included, it must be examined whether an overshoot in the amount is still compatible with a certain global warming limit; especially due to tipping points in the climate system.
Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).
Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)
- A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100. For this purpose, five scenario types (RM 1 - 5) are provided, which differ from the assumptions concerning the course of the annual reduction rates.
- National emission paths are derived from this global path with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.
Latest publication on the Regensburg Model (further publications
here):
Journal "Climate Policy" published online on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions
Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM; based on Raupach et al.)
- A given global CO2 budget is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year (2019).
- The SPM formula from Raupach et al. turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible positive national emission path. In addition to this SPM formula, in the 'Tool _ ESPM' offered below, we provide the Regensburg Model scenario types RM 1 - 6 to identify plausible national emission paths that can also reflect negative emissions and different trajectories of the annual reduction rates.
Download tools and papers
- Excel tools for calculating national reference vlaues derived from national emission paths that are compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100
- Regensburg Model (converging per capita emissions):
- Tool_RM.xlsm
- Preview of the tool in the browser here
- Instructions for the tool
- Contains five scenario types (RM 1 - 5) to determine global emission paths that are compatible with a given global budget 2020 - 2100. It is also possible to enter a global path yourself.
- Extended Smooth Pathway Model (national paths derived from a national remaining budget):
- Tool_ESPM.xlsm
- Preview of the tool in the browser here
- Tool ESPM without macros: Tool_ESPM.xlsx
; code of the 'goal seek' macro as a .bas or .doc file for self-integration into the tool
- Contains multiple scenario types to determine national emission paths that are compatible with a given remaining national budget. The scenario types of the Regensburg Model are used and the SPM formula from Raupach et al.
- A weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in base year 2019 is provided to determine remaining national budgets from a global budget. The remaining national budget can also be specified freely.
- Application of the ESPM to the EU objectives
- Determine global paths that meet a given global budget
In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool.
- Tool_global_paths.xlsm
- Preview of the tool in the browser here
- Contains six scenario types (RM 1 - 6) to determine global emission paths that are compatible with a given global budget 2020 - 2100. These differ on the assumption over the property of the annual reductions.
- Contains in addition the illustrative IPCC SR1.5 paths P1 - P4 (LED, S1, S2, S5) for comparison. The comparison shows that the RM scenario types are well suited to politically discussing appropriate paths that adhere to a given budget.
- Comparison similar approaches (Resource Sharing Models):
Regensburg Formula, Contraction & Convergence (C&C), LIMITS, Smooth Pathway Models, Chakravarty et al. (cap per capita emissions), Höhne et al.
(common but differentiated convergence; CDC)
- Resource Sharing Models - A Mathematical Description
This paper shines the spotlight on the mathematical formulae of resource sharing models. It contributes to greater transparency and comparability through a uniform mathematical representation, by showing generalisations and mergers as well as similarities and differences between currently used models. It also contains mathematical proofs for specified properties of the models.
In Chapter 2 we consider models with a limited convergence period, at the end of which global emissions are allocated to countries according to population only (C&C, LIMITS, Regensburg Formula, CDC). The Smooth Pathway Models in Chapter 3 calculates national paths starting from allocated remaining national budgets. The Emission Probability Model in Chapter 4 determines country specific emission density functions and caps the emissions of individuals.
- Remark on the tools
The Excel tools include macros. Your Excel program may be configured in such a way as that a warning appears because of the macros. On request, the tools can be provided without macros and the code of the macros as a text file.
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