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Regensburg Model and Smooth Pathway Model

Short introduction

Distribution of a remaining global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, certain remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming.

This remaining global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such distribution should be the guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)

  1. A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100.
  2. National emission paths are derived with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.

Basic idea behind the Smooth Pathway Model (SPM; based on Raupach et al.)

  1. A given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100 is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year.
  2. The SPM formula from Raupach et al. turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible national emission path. In the 'Tool _ NP _ RM _ SPM', which we offer below, we provide the Regensburg Model scenario types in addition to the SPM formula to determine plausible national paths.

Latest own puplication (further puplications here)

Journal "Climate Policy" on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions

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