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Reference values to the NDCs:
Regensburg Model and Extended Smooth Pathway Model

Short introduction

Distribution of a global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, certain remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here).

In our opinion, for a better operationalization, it makes sense to consider a global CO2 budget by the end of this century. However, this implies that, if global negative emissions are included, it must be examined whether an overshoot in the amount is still compatible with a certain global warming limit; especially due to tipping points in the climate system.

Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)

  1. A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100. For this purpose, five scenario types (RM 1 - 5) are provided, which differ from the assumptions concerning the course of the annual reduction rates.
  2. National emission paths are derived from this global path with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.
Latest publication on the Regensburg Model (further publications here):

Journal "Climate Policy" published online on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions

Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM; based on Raupach et al.)

  1. A given global CO2 budget is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year (2019).
  2. The SPM formula from Raupach et al. turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible positive national emission path. In addition to this SPM formula, in the 'Tool _ ESPM' offered below, we provide the Regensburg Model scenario types RM 1 - 6 to identify plausible national emission paths that can also reflect negative emissions and different trajectories of the annual reduction rates.

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