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Regensburg Model and Smooth Pathway Model
Short introduction
Distribution of a remaining global CO2 budget
CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, certain remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming.
This remaining global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such distribution should be the guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).
Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)
- A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100.
- National emission paths are derived with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.
Basic idea behind the Smooth Pathway Model (SPM; based on Raupach et al.)
- A given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100 is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year (2019).
- The SPM formula from Raupach et al. turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible national emission path. In addition to the SPM formula, in the 'Tool _ NP _ RM _ SPM' offered below we provide the Regensburg Model scenario types to identify plausible national emission paths that can also reflect negative emissions and different gradients of the annual reduction rates.
Latest own publication on the Regensburg Model (further publications here)
Journal "Climate Policy" on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions
Download tools and papers
- Excel tools for calculating national reference vlaues derived from national emission paths that are compatible with a given global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100
- Regensburg Model (converging per capita emissions):
- Smooth Pathway Model (national paths derived from a national remaining budget):
- Tool_NP_RM_SPM.xlsm (4 December 2018)
- Preview the tool in the browser here
- Contains multiple scenario types to determine national emission paths that are compatible with a given remaining national budget. The scenario types of the Regensburg Model are used and the SPM formula.
- A weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in base year 2019 is provided to determine remaining national budgets from a global budget. The remaining national budget can also be specified freely.
- The application of this tool is relatively simple.
- Excel tool: Determine global paths that meet a given remaining global budget
In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool. The application of this tool is relatively simple.
- Comparison similar approaches (Resource Sharing Models):
Regensburg Formula, Contraction & Convergence (C&C), LIMITS, Raupach et al. (Smooth Pathway Model), Chakravarty et al. (cap per capita emissions), Höhne et al.
(common but differentiated convergence; CDC)
- Resource Sharing Models - A Mathematical Description (version: 11 November 2018)
This paper shines the spotlight on the mathematical formulae of resource sharing models. It contributes to greater transparency and comparability through a uniform mathematical representation, by showing generalisations and mergers as well as similarities and differences between currently used models. It also contains mathematical proofs for specified properties of the models.
In Chapter 2 we consider models with a limited convergence period, at the end of which global emissions are allocated to countries according to population only (C&C, LIMITS, Regensburg Formula, CDC). The Smooth Pathway Model in Chapter 3 calculates national pathways starting from allocated remaining national budgets. The Emission Probability Model in Chapter 4 determines country specific emission density functions and caps the emissions of individuals.
- Remarks on the tools
The excel tools include macros make working with the tools much easier: If you change input variables you can run a goal seek over all scenarios for example. Your excel program may be configured in such a way as that a warning appears because of the macros. In this case you should enable macros, if you want to use it.You can viewing the macros in VBA before. We provide the tools as xlsm-format (compatible from Excel 2007 onwards).
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