Determination of the parameters for the global scenarios 2020 - 2100
target is met target is not met[1]   start macro
Goal Seek (or ctrl + b):
Determination of the free parameter of scenarios 1 - 4, so that the budget is adhered to.
input values determination via "goal seek"[2] target value of "goal seek"  
 
RM 1 RM 2 RM 3 RM 4 RM 5 RM 6 SPM-R
characteristics of the scenario   RRt const RRt exp RRt lin RRt quadr RRt rad RAt const Raupach
      only a negative RR_20 possible a positive RR_20 is also possible
(= increasing emissions after 2019)
    SPM
         
reduction rate 2020 (RR20) S1-S4[3]   -7,9% -1,45% -1,50% -1,50% -1,50% -3,56%  
Initial values for free parameter (cells shaded in grey) if Goal Seek does not converge: -1% 1% -1% 0 0 -3  
RRt constant ER A a a B  
Free parameters are determined by Goal Seek in such a way as that the budget is adhered to. -7,93%[4] 15,18%[5] -0,67620%[6] -8,2447E+303      
  -3,77787E+16   -0,00053161[7] -0,02366098 -1,48  
rate of change of emissions at the end of the base year (r) :  -0,50%
scenario 2020 - 2100 Gt 337 337 337 337 337 337 337
budget 2020 - 2100[8] Gt 337 337 337 337 337 337 337
   
emissions 2100 scenario; E2100 Gt -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 0,000
minimum emissions; Emin[9] Gt -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -
 
values from the scenarios   RM 1 RM 2 RM 3 RM 4 RM 5 RM 6 SPM-R
year Emin is achieved    2080 - 2062 2053 2070 2051 -
maximum RRt[10] -7,9% -37% -20% -32% -14% -789% -18%
year maximum RRt[11] 2029 2043 2047 2044 2049 2048 -
maximum overshoot Gt 128 234 194 226 169 228 -
reduction 2030 vs. 2010   -56% -24% -37% -25% -45% -34% -71%
At which level of global emissions (threshold value; TV) shall the annual percentage reduction be change into a constant annual reduction in scenarios 2 - 5?   in Gt[12] 2,0
Opportunity for its own TV in scenario 1 to get there earlier to global negative emissions: in Gt 3,0
E_min -4,4 sheet 'base data'

[1]
Budget 2020 - 2050 (BG) oder
Zielmenge 2050 (ZM) wird nicht eingehalten.
[2]
In rare cases, Goal Seek does not converge despite of the existence of a solution. We recommend in such cases to input following start value in the cells shaded in grey:
RR_t constant and A = -1%,
ER = 1%
a = 0.
[3]

Relative reduction or increase in emissions in 2020 compared to of 2019.
[4]


If the Goal Seek did not converge, enter for example -1% here and/or arise TV and perform the Goal Seek again
[5]

ER must be greater than zero, otherwise RR_t decreases (mathematically: increases).

If the Goal Seek did not converge, enter 1 here and perform the Goal Seek again. Changing RR_20 can also be useful.
[6]

A must be less than zero, otherwise RR_t decreases (mathematically: increases).

If the Goal Seek didn't converge, enter -1 here and perform the Goal Seek again. Changing RR_20 can also be useful.
[7]
If the Goal Seek didn't converged, enter zero here and perform the Goal Seek again. Changing RR_20 can also be useful.
[8]
input value sheet "base data"
[9]
input value sheet "base data"
[10]
AW:
Within the formulae see below.
[11]
AW:
Within the formulae see below.
[12]
Background:
In our view, it makes sense to change the methode at  relatively low global emissions in the scenarios 1-4. We propose the threshold of 1 Gt CO2. Another threshold can be entered here. The absolute reduction of the previous year is then used as a constant annual reduction amount.