Smooth Pathways Formula - inertia (spk = 0%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SPF-in | Smooth Pathways Formula; based on: Raupach et al. (2014) / Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions / nature climate change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2384 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Country A | Country B | Country C | Global | Description | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
RBA: | 344 | Gt | RBB: | 320 | Gt | RBC: | 20 | Gt | RB: | 684 | Gt | Raupach et al. have developed a formula to convert a budget of a country or global into a smooth emission pathway. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TA | 16.4 | TB | 16.4 | TC | 16.4 | Global path ist different to the path in sheet "global path". | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
rA | 0.00% | rB | 3.00% | rC | 2.00% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
mA | 0.1 | mB | 0.1 | mC | 0.1 | share population key: | 0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Year t |
Popu-lation Pit |
Eit | Per capita | Popu-lation Pit |
Eit | Per capita | Popu-lation Pit |
Eit | Per capita | Popu-lation Pt |
Et | Per capita | Limitations | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
bn | Gt | t | bn | Gt | t | bn | Gt | t | bn | Gt | t | A | B | C | - | The resulting global pathway ist different to the pathway in sheet "global path". So this model is comparable with the other models to a limited extent only. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 1.2 | 21.0 | 17.50 | 4.0 | 19.5 | 4.88 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.72 | 6.9 | 41.7 | 6.05 | annual change rates | - | The per capita emissions converge far into the future; as you can see on the remaining budgets as of 2051. So this model is comparable with the other models to a limited extent only. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2020 | 1.2 | 21.0 | 17.46 | 4.0 | 19.7 | 4.93 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.73 | 6.9 | 41.9 | 6.07 | 0.4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2021 | 1.2 | 20.7 | 17.23 | 4.0 | 19.8 | 4.96 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.73 | 6.9 | 41.8 | 6.05 | -0.3% | -1% | 1% | 0% | Simplification | |||||||||||||||||||||
2022 | 1.2 | 20.2 | 16.83 | 4.0 | 19.6 | 4.91 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.72 | 6.9 | 41.0 | 5.95 | -1.7% | -2% | -1% | -1% | We assumed that the emission power at the end of the base year are the emissions in the base year divided by one year. | |||||||||||||||||||||
2023 | 1.2 | 19.5 | 16.29 | 4.0 | 19.2 | 4.79 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.70 | 6.9 | 39.9 | 5.78 | -2.8% | -3% | -2% | -3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2024 | 1.2 | 18.8 | 15.65 | 4.0 | 18.5 | 4.62 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.67 | 6.9 | 38.4 | 5.57 | -3.7% | -4% | -4% | -4% | Input values | |||||||||||||||||||||
2025 | 1.2 | 17.9 | 14.95 | 4.0 | 17.7 | 4.42 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.64 | 6.9 | 36.7 | 5.32 | -4.4% | -5% | -4% | -4% | - | reduction rate at the beginnging of 2020 for each country | ||||||||||||||||||||
2026 | 1.2 | 17.0 | 14.20 | 4.0 | 16.8 | 4.19 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.61 | 6.9 | 34.8 | 5.05 | -5.1% | -5% | -5% | -5% | - | Share that is distributed over the population key | ||||||||||||||||||||
2027 | 1.2 | 16.1 | 13.42 | 4.0 | 15.8 | 3.95 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.58 | 6.9 | 32.9 | 4.77 | -5.6% | -5% | -6% | -6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2028 | 1.2 | 15.2 | 12.64 | 4.0 | 14.8 | 3.71 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.54 | 6.9 | 30.9 | 4.48 | -6.0% | -6% | -6% | -6% |
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2029 | 1.2 | 14.2 | 11.86 | 4.0 | 13.8 | 3.46 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.51 | 6.9 | 28.9 | 4.19 | -6.4% | -6% | -7% | -6% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2030 | 1.2 | 13.3 | 11.09 | 4.0 | 12.9 | 3.22 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.47 | 6.9 | 27.0 | 3.91 | -6.8% | -6% | -7% | -7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2031 | 1.2 | 12.4 | 10.34 | 4.0 | 11.9 | 2.98 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.44 | 6.9 | 25.1 | 3.63 | -7.1% | -7% | -7% | -7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2032 | 1.2 | 11.5 | 9.62 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 2.75 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.40 | 6.9 | 23.2 | 3.37 | -7.3% | -7% | -8% | -7% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2033 | 1.2 | 10.7 | 8.92 | 4.0 | 10.1 | 2.53 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.37 | 6.9 | 21.5 | 3.11 | -7.6% | -7% | -8% | -8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2034 | 1.2 | 9.9 | 8.26 | 4.0 | 9.3 | 2.32 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.34 | 6.9 | 19.8 | 2.87 | -7.8% | -7% | -8% | -8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2035 | 1.2 | 9.2 | 7.64 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 2.13 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.32 | 6.9 | 18.2 | 2.64 | -8.0% | -8% | -8% | -8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2036 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 7.04 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 1.94 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.29 | 6.9 | 16.7 | 2.42 | -8.2% | -8% | -9% | -8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2037 | 1.2 | 7.8 | 6.49 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 1.77 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.26 | 6.9 | 15.3 | 2.22 | -8.3% | -8% | -9% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2038 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 5.97 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 1.61 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.24 | 6.9 | 14.0 | 2.03 | -8.5% | -8% | -9% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2039 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 5.48 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 1.47 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.22 | 6.9 | 12.8 | 1.86 | -8.6% | -8% | -9% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2040 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 5.02 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 1.33 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.20 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 1.70 | -8.8% | -8% | -9% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2041 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 4.60 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 1.21 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.18 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 1.54 | -8.9% | -8% | -9% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2042 | 1.2 | 5.1 | 4.21 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 1.09 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.17 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 1.41 | -9.0% | -9% | -10% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2043 | 1.2 | 4.6 | 3.85 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 0.99 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.15 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 1.28 | -9.1% | -9% | -10% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2044 | 1.2 | 4.2 | 3.51 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 0.89 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.14 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 1.16 | -9.2% | -9% | -10% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2045 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 3.21 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.80 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.12 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 1.05 | -9.3% | -9% | -10% | -9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2046 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.92 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.72 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.11 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 0.96 | -9.3% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2047 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 2.66 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.65 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.10 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 0.87 | -9.4% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2048 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.42 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.59 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.09 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 0.78 | -9.5% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2049 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.20 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.53 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 0.71 | -9.6% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2050 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.00 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.47 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 0.64 | -9.6% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
∑ | 322 | 304 | 19 | 644 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rest | 23 | 16 | 1 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
∑ | 344 | 320 | 20 | 684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
global path 2020 - 2100 sheet "global path": | 684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2051 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.82 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.42 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 0.58 | -9.7% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2052 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.65 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.38 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 0.52 | -9.7% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2053 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.49 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.34 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 0.47 | -9.8% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2054 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.35 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.31 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.42 | -9.8% | -9% | -10% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2055 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.23 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.27 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.38 | -9.9% | -9% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2056 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.11 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.24 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.34 | -9.9% | -9% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2057 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.01 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.22 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.31 | -10.0% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2058 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.91 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.19 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.28 | -10.0% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2059 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.17 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.25 | -10.1% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2060 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.74 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.16 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 0.23 | -10.1% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2061 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.67 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.14 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.20 | -10.1% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2062 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.61 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.12 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.18 | -10.2% | -10% | -11% | -10% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2063 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.55 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.11 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 0.16 | -10.2% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2064 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.49 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.10 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 6.9 | 1.0 | 0.15 | -10.2% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2065 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.45 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.09 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 0.13 | -10.3% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2066 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.40 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.08 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.12 | -10.3% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2067 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.36 | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.07 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 0.11 | -10.3% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2068 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.33 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 0.09 | -10.4% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2069 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.29 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 0.09 | -10.4% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2070 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.26 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.05 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.08 | -10.4% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2071 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.24 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.07 | -10.4% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2072 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.21 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.04 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 0.06 | -10.4% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2073 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.19 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 0.05 | -10.5% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2074 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.17 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 0.05 | -10.5% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2075 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.16 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 0.04 | -10.5% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2076 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.14 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.3 | 0.04 | -10.5% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2077 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.13 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 0.04 | -10.5% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2078 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 0.03 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2079 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.02 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 0.03 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2080 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 0.03 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2081 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.2 | 0.02 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2082 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.02 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2083 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.02 | -10.6% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2084 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.06 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.02 | -10.7% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2085 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2086 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2087 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.04 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2088 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.04 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -11% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2089 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2090 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.1 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2091 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.01 | -10.7% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2092 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.01 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2093 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.01 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2094 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.01 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2095 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2096 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2097 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2098 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2099 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2100 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.01 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 0.0 | 0.00 | -10.8% | -10% | -12% | -11% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
∑ | 23 | 16 | 1 | 39 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
∑ | 23 | 16 | 1 | 40 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
∑ | 344 | 320 | 20 | 684 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
global path: | 684 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 |