Regensburg Formula source: www.save-the-climate.info Climate Policy, Volume 17, 2017 - Issue 5: The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions
RF convergence period: 2020 - 2050
Sargl/Wolfsteiner/Wittmann
Country A Country B Country C Global
2050 EACY 0.8 Gt EBCY 2.6 Gt ECCY 1.1 Gt ECY 4.4 Gt  
Year
t		 Popu-lation
Pit		 Eit Per capita Popu-lation
Pit		 Eit Per capita Popu-lation
Pit		 Eit Per capita Popu-lation
Pt		 Et Per capita Ct
  bn Gt t bn Gt t bn Gt t bn Gt t  
  1.2 21.0 17.50 4.0 19.5 4.88 1.70 1.2 0.72 6.9 41.7 6.05 0.0%
2020 1.2 20.5 17.12 4.0 19.1 4.78 1.70 1.2 0.72 6.9 40.9 5.93 2.2%
  1.2 20.0 16.69 4.0 18.7 4.67 1.70 1.2 0.72 6.9 39.9 5.79 4.8%
  1.2 19.5 16.21 4.0 18.2 4.55 1.70 1.2 0.72 6.9 38.9 5.63 7.6%
  1.2 18.8 15.69 4.0 17.7 4.42 1.70 1.2 0.71 6.9 37.7 5.47 10.8%
  1.2 18.1 15.12 4.0 17.1 4.28 1.70 1.2 0.71 6.9 36.5 5.29 14.1%
2025 1.2 17.4 14.52 4.0 16.5 4.13 1.70 1.2 0.71 6.9 35.1 5.09 17.7%
  1.2 16.7 13.89 4.0 15.9 3.97 1.70 1.2 0.71 6.9 33.7 4.89 21.4%
  1.2 15.9 13.24 4.0 15.2 3.80 1.70 1.2 0.70 6.9 32.3 4.68 25.3%
  1.2 15.1 12.56 4.0 14.5 3.64 1.70 1.2 0.70 6.9 30.8 4.46 29.3%
  1.2 14.2 11.87 4.0 13.8 3.46 1.70 1.2 0.70 6.9 29.3 4.24 33.4%
2030 1.2 13.4 11.17 4.0 13.1 3.29 1.70 1.2 0.69 6.9 27.7 4.02 37.5%
  1.2 12.6 10.47 4.0 12.4 3.11 1.70 1.2 0.69 6.9 26.2 3.79 41.7%
  1.2 11.7 9.77 4.0 11.7 2.93 1.70 1.2 0.69 6.9 24.6 3.57 45.9%
  1.2 10.9 9.07 4.0 11.0 2.76 1.70 1.2 0.68 6.9 23.1 3.34 50.0%
  1.2 10.1 8.38 4.0 10.3 2.59 1.70 1.2 0.68 6.9 21.6 3.12 54.1%
2035 1.2 9.2 7.71 4.0 9.7 2.42 1.70 1.2 0.68 6.9 20.1 2.91 58.1%
  1.2 8.5 7.05 4.0 9.0 2.25 1.70 1.1 0.67 6.9 18.6 2.70 62.0%
  1.2 7.7 6.41 4.0 8.4 2.09 1.70 1.1 0.67 6.9 17.2 2.49 65.8%
  1.2 7.0 5.80 4.0 7.7 1.94 1.70 1.1 0.67 6.9 15.8 2.30 69.4%
  1.2 6.2 5.21 4.0 7.2 1.79 1.70 1.1 0.67 6.9 14.5 2.11 72.9%
2040 1.2 5.6 4.64 4.0 6.6 1.65 1.70 1.1 0.66 6.9 13.3 1.93 76.3%
  1.2 4.9 4.11 4.0 6.1 1.51 1.70 1.1 0.66 6.9 12.1 1.76 79.4%
  1.2 4.3 3.60 4.0 5.5 1.39 1.70 1.1 0.66 6.9 11.0 1.59 82.4%
  1.2 3.8 3.13 4.0 5.1 1.27 1.70 1.1 0.66 6.9 9.9 1.44 85.3%
  1.2 3.2 2.69 4.0 4.6 1.16 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 9.0 1.30 87.9%
2045 1.2 2.7 2.27 4.0 4.2 1.05 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 8.0 1.17 90.3%
  1.2 2.3 1.89 4.0 3.8 0.96 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 7.2 1.04 92.6%
  1.2 1.8 1.54 4.0 3.5 0.87 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 6.4 0.93 94.7%
  1.2 1.5 1.21 4.0 3.1 0.79 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 5.7 0.83 96.6%
  1.2 1.1 0.91 4.0 2.8 0.71 1.70 1.1 0.65 6.9 5.0 0.73 98.4%
2050 1.2 0.8 0.64 4.0 2.6 0.64 1.70 1.1 0.64 6.9 4.4 0.64 100.0%
∑   306     315     36     657    
pop. growth 0% 0% 0% global path: 684
-27
2051 1.2 0.7 0.57 4.0 2.3 0.57 1.70 1.0 0.57 6.90 3.9 0.57
2052 1.2 0.6 0.50 4.0 2.0 0.50 1.70 0.8 0.50 6.90 3.4 0.50
2053 1.2 0.5 0.43 4.0 1.7 0.43 1.70 0.7 0.43 6.90 3.0 0.43
2054 1.2 0.4 0.37 4.0 1.5 0.37 1.70 0.6 0.37 6.90 2.6 0.37
2055 1.2 0.4 0.32 4.0 1.3 0.32 1.70 0.6 0.32 6.90 2.2 0.32
2056 1.2 0.3 0.28 4.0 1.1 0.28 1.70 0.5 0.28 6.90 1.9 0.28
2057 1.2 0.3 0.24 4.0 1.0 0.24 1.70 0.4 0.24 6.90 1.7 0.24
2058 1.2 0.2 0.21 4.0 0.8 0.21 1.70 0.3 0.21 6.90 1.4 0.21
2059 1.2 0.2 0.17 4.0 0.7 0.17 1.70 0.3 0.17 6.90 1.2 0.17
2060 1.2 0.2 0.15 4.0 0.6 0.15 1.70 0.3 0.15 6.90 1.0 0.15
2061 1.2 0.2 0.13 4.0 0.5 0.13 1.70 0.2 0.13 6.90 0.9 0.13
2062 1.2 0.1 0.11 4.0 0.4 0.11 1.70 0.2 0.11 6.90 0.7 0.11
2063 1.2 0.1 0.09 4.0 0.4 0.09 1.70 0.2 0.09 6.90 0.6 0.09
2064 1.2 0.1 0.07 4.0 0.3 0.07 1.70 0.1 0.07 6.90 0.5 0.07
2065 1.2 0.1 0.06 4.0 0.2 0.06 1.70 0.1 0.06 6.90 0.4 0.06
2066 1.2 0.1 0.05 4.0 0.2 0.05 1.70 0.1 0.05 6.90 0.4 0.05
2067 1.2 0.1 0.04 4.0 0.2 0.04 1.70 0.1 0.04 6.90 0.3 0.04
2068 1.2 0.0 0.03 4.0 0.1 0.03 1.70 0.1 0.03 6.90 0.2 0.03
2069 1.2 0.0 0.03 4.0 0.1 0.03 1.70 0.0 0.03 6.90 0.2 0.03
2070 1.2 0.0 0.02 4.0 0.1 0.02 1.70 0.0 0.02 6.90 0.2 0.02
2071 1.2 0.0 0.02 4.0 0.1 0.02 1.70 0.0 0.02 6.90 0.1 0.02
2072 1.2 0.0 0.02 4.0 0.1 0.02 1.70 0.0 0.02 6.90 0.1 0.02
2073 1.2 0.0 0.01 4.0 0.0 0.01 1.70 0.0 0.01 6.90 0.1 0.01
2074 1.2 0.0 0.01 4.0 0.0 0.01 1.70 0.0 0.01 6.90 0.1 0.01
2075 1.2 0.0 0.01 4.0 0.0 0.01 1.70 0.0 0.01 6.90 0.0 0.01
2076 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2077 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2078 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2079 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2080 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2081 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2082 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2083 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2084 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2085 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2086 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2087 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2088 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2089 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2090 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2091 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2092 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2093 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2094 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2095 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2096 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2097 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2098 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2099 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
2100 1.2 0.0 0.00 4.0 0.0 0.00 1.70 0.0 0.00 6.90 0.0 0.00
∑   5     16     7     27    
2020-2100   310     331     43     684  
global path: 684
control: 0
global path: 3 A     B     C
2   337     322     25     684 RM
1 265 347 72 684 RM
3 310 331 43 684 RM
6   303     334     47     684 RM
 
2   338     322     25     3% share population key solver
1 265 347 72 35% share population key solver
3 310 331 43 15% share population key solver
6   303     334     47     18% share population key solver
 
2   0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00 square deviation
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 square deviation
3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 square deviation
6   0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00 square deviation
A B C
2   337     322     25     3% 3% 3% share population key solver
1 265 347 72 35% 35% 35% share population key solver
3 310 331 43 15% 15% 15% share population key solver
6   303     334     47     18% 18% 18% share population key solver
 
2   0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00 square deviation
1   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 square deviation
3   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 square deviation
6   0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00 square deviation